ANALYSIS: National Democrats Long for Cooper to Enter NC Senate Race
A recent Politico article detailed national Democrats’ efforts to recruit former Governor Roy Cooper into the race for U.S. Senate. Democrats would need to net four seats to retake the majority in the United States Senate. Democrats need to hold four seats in Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Georgia, and win contests in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and possibly Texas. This is a massive challenge, and if Democrats cannot field a viable candidate in North Carolina, there is almost no hope for them to retake the majority.
That is why National Democrats are so keen on former Governor Roy Cooper entering the race. Here is what Democrats had to say about him in the Politico piece:
“He has the best shot and he is the most sure shot,” said Democratic state Sen. Graig Meyer. “Once you get past Roy Cooper, everyone else has a shot, yes, but then it’s dependent on any number of things going right for them.”
“The national money we could have here with Cooper in this race would be unprecedented,” said one Democratic operative in the state. “Cooper opens up donor money that could radically transform what’s possible here.”
“A national Democratic consultant who has worked in North Carolina called Cooper ‘maybe the only candidate who can win in this political environment, when Democratic branding is in the toilet.’”
“He has a brand, a reputation, for being a down-to-earth, good man, and it’s harder to demonize someone when they know who you are,” said North Carolina state Sen. Lisa Grafstein. “He’s able to overcome the way the national narrative pushes toward Republicans in federal races here because people know him.”
Notably, Democrats are decidedly demure on the prospect of former Congressman Wiley Nickel's campaign for Senate. Here is how Democrats seem to really feel about Nickel: “If it’s Roy Cooper, there’s no point for anyone else to run,” said a progressive strategist who helps recruit candidates and was granted anonymity to discuss the race candidly. “But no one is getting out of the way for Wiley f****** Nickel.” The lack of enthusiasm for Nickel can be seen in his inadequate fundraising.
Why is Cooper waiting?
There are three possible reasons for Cooper to delay his campaign launch this long:
First, delaying his launch, Cooper stays out of the spotlight and avoids the need to comment on the news of the day. His team probably believes he has enough name recognition and fundraising ability to launch his campaign later than usual and still run a competitive race. The longer Cooper waits to enter the race, the shorter the window for Republicans to highlight his long record of incompetence.
Second, Cooper may want to retire from public service. He has been an elected official since 1986 and may decide it is time to retire, instead of launching a Senate campaign.
Third, Cooper may decide to run for President in 2028. Cooper has been serving as a statewide executive since his election as Attorney General in 2000. Joining the U.S. Senate as a member of the minority party and taking orders from Sen. Chuck Schumer probably does not appeal to former Governor Cooper. As a Governor from a must-win swing state, Cooper has a formidable resume on paper. Some commentators will opine that he is not progressive enough to win the nomination. However, Cooper’s record as governor shows that ideologically, he is closer to New York's Communist Zohran Mamdani than to moderate Democrat Joe Manchin. His delay in deciding on a Senate race may be a tactic to help his preferred candidate.
Until Cooper makes a final decision on the North Carolina Senate race, the field is practically frozen on the progressive side of the aisle. If Cooper decides to run for Senate, he will likely face no competition. If Cooper declines, the Democrats will face a messy primary, where the Democrat establishment will inevitably select their preferred candidate over a progressive alternative, like they did in 2022, 2020, and 2016.
