Democrat Aligned Pollster Confirms North Carolina U.S. Senate Contest Within Margin Of Error
Today, Public Policy Polling released a substantial poll of the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina. The poll found that Democrat former Governor Roy Cooper led Republican nominee Michael Whatley 47% to 44%. The poll surveyed 556 North Carolina voters and has a margin of error of 4.2%. Accounting for the margin of error, Cooper and Whatley are essentially tied.
Public Policy Polling does substantial polling work for Democrat candidates across the country, and it is interesting that they decided to release this poll showing Cooper in a comparatively weak position. The cross-tab of this poll shows that only 46% of respondents were men, a group that tends to lean more toward Republicans in recent election cycles. Additionally, most voters know who Cooper is, and he has not secured more than 50% of total support.
Bottom Line: North Carolina will be a competitive state in 2026, and polls have consistently overestimated Democrat performance in the Tar Heel State.
North Carolina US Senate polls versus results:
In 2020, the Real Clear Politics polling average showed that Cunningham had a 2.8% lead in the polls, but Tillis won by 1.8%.
In 2016, Republican Senator Richard Burr had a polling lead of 2.0% and went on to win with a 5.7% margin of victory.
In 2014, Democrat Senator Kay Hagan had 1.2% polling average lead, but went on to lose to former N.C. House Speaker Thom Tillis.
Tim’s Take: Public polls have limited value. Given his decades in office, Cooper will have a name ID advantage in every poll until political spending and voter engagement pick up in the fall. Even during the lead-up to election day, polls will still have limited value, but legacy media outlets want to talk about the horse race rather than issues.
