Governors Don’t Always Get to the Senate

By: James Burton is a Republican political operative with more than 20 years of experience in North Carolina and Maryland campaigns. He is the president of Burton Research & Strategies.

In North Carolina, we’re no strangers to political irony. The Old North State has a long tradition of splitting tickets — backing conservative Republicans for federal office while electing Democrats for governor. But what works in a gubernatorial race doesn’t always translate to a successful U.S. Senate campaign. Recent case in point: Maryland’s Larry Hogan’s failed Senate bid in 2024. North Carolina’s own history of governors eyeing the Senate is a reminder that popularity at home isn’t the same as electability in a polarized national race. 
 
Larry Hogan, a two-term Republican governor in deep-blue Maryland, entered his 2024 Senate race with sky-high approval ratings and a strong bipartisan image. His opponent, Angela Alsobrooks, was a relatively new metropolitan D.C. County Executive with limited statewide name recognition. On paper, Hogan had every advantage — money, bipartisan appeal, and distance from Trump in a state Vice President Kamala Harris carried with 63% of the vote. 

But Senate races aren’t fought on state issues and management skills — they’re nationalized contests focused on party and ideology. Once Hogan had to take positions on border security, energy, and abortion, partisan lines hardened. Even voters who twice backed him for governor balked at sending another Republican to Washington. Hogan ended up with 43% of the vote. 
 
Now North Carolina’s Roy Cooper faces a similar test. Democrats in Washington, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, have made no secret they view Cooper as their top pickup opportunity — some already measuring the drapes for his Senate office. 
 
Unlike Hogan, Cooper governed a state that leans red in federal races. A reminder: the last time a Democrat for President carried North Carolina was 2008 — it was also the last time Tar Heel voters elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate. Donald Trump carried North Carolina three times, and his support in rural and working-class counties remains strong. Cooper’s 2016 win and 2020 re-election were significant, though his re-election opponent lacked the resources to run statewide advertising — essential for running a gubernatorial campaign. 
 
Cooper’s already being hit for being soft on crime, allowing boys in girls’ sports, tolerating violent protests in 2020, and slow hurricane recovery. His likely Republican opponent, Michael Whatley, isn’t a household name but is hardly a newcomer. While he lacks name ID, his key assets are a national fundraising base as former RNC Chairman and a strong Trump endorsement. 
 
Cooper isn’t the first North Carolina governor to take a shot at the Senate — or to learn how steep the climb can be. Pat McCrory tried just a few years after leaving office, only to lose badly in the 2022 GOP primary. Decades earlier, Jim Hunt challenged Jesse Helms in 1984 and lost in one of the most expensive and hard-fought Senate races in history. The lesson: being a respected executive doesn’t automatically make you a successful federal candidate. 
 
Nationally, the odds are equally sobering. Between 1986 and 2024, about half of governors who ran for the U.S. Senate lost. The skill set that wins a governor’s race — pragmatism and compromise — is often the opposite of what a polarized Senate electorate rewards. 
 
A governor’s job is to fix roads, balance budgets, and manage crises. A senator’s job is to take sides — on war, spending, immigration, and social issues that divide voters. In Washington, compromise is seen as weakness. 

 
That’s what tripped up Hogan — and could trap Cooper. Hogan’s moderation couldn’t survive Maryland’s Trump fatigue. Cooper’s may not survive North Carolina’s Trump loyalty. 
 
So while Democrats in Washington celebrate their recruit, they might want to hold off on ordering drapes for a Senate office. Roy Cooper will have to run in a state Donald Trump has carried repeatedly — against a Republican with full access to the MAGA movement’s machinery. 
 
As Larry Hogan’s experience proves, being a popular governor doesn’t make you bulletproof. It just makes the fall that much harder.