Betting Market Grows Uneasy About Possible Cooper Senate Run

The prediction market Kalshi shows that some speculators are predicting that Gov. Roy Cooper, the prized DSCC recruit, may not challenge Tillis after all, despite months of chatter. Axios reported that Cooper would make a decision by June, and with only five days left in the month, no decision has been leaked. At 10:32 am this morning, the prediction market showed that speculators gave Cooper a 26% chance of being the eventual Democratic nominee for Senate from North Carolina, with Nickel and Jackson seeing a spike in interest. Kalshi offers a diverse range of predictive markets, including politics, sports, and economics.

In contrast, Sen. Thom Tillis remained the consistent favorite to be the Republican nominee. In fact, his announced primary opponents are not even ranked as options, due to their poor campaign performance so far.

In recent years, polling has become increasingly difficult and less reliable. Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, provide insights into possible electoral outcomes more quickly than traditional polling methods. However, these predictive markets are not always reliable.

This is something Donald Trump Jr. highlighted about the 2024 election results.