In the first nine months of 2024 alone, 28 degree-granting institutions closed their doors. Many were small, or private institutions with idyllic settings for learning. The kinds of places that families embraced for generations.
In 2026, American colleges are continuing their the trend. See, the birth rate has been dropping since 2007, when an astonishing 4.3 million babies were born. Nearly two decades later those kids represent the peak of college enrollment for a generation. It only goes “south” from here. The steepest decline (13%) will occur between now and 2028, when the freshman class shrinks by an astounding 320,000 students. In addition to fewer students, young adults are beginning to explore alternatives to college. But I think we are also witnessing something greater: the end of the great college spending spree.
In 2013, a Gallup survey suggested 70% of people said a college education was very important. Only 31% say it's very important today. Much of that decline is a result of the exploding cost of education. It raises serious questions about the morality of burdening a teenager with a lifetime of debt on the hazy promise of a brighter financial future.
My tuition was around $1,600 per year at The University of Georgia in 1986. The all-in cost was around $5,000 per year. Since that time tuition at all colleges and universities has exploded. Normally, when a business raises its prices too much, customers stop buying. College found a workaround: student loans. Thirty of the most expensive universities cost more than $72K per year. When you add in room, board and books that can top $100,000 per year. Starting pay for a teacher in Cobb County in Georgia is around $60,000 per year or about $4,000 monthly take home pay. Total loans of $400,000 will cost that teacher $2,300 to $3,300 a month for the next 25 years. That math just doesn’t “math.” A 17 year-old student couldn’t get a loan to buy a $28,000 Kia Sportage. So is it ethical to burden that same teen with enormous debt for a college education? People with bachelor's degrees earn 84% more over a lifetime than high school graduates. But those high school graduates won’t spend a lifetime paying off a college education that might not deliver the earnings to service that debt.
Colleges and universities will argue that “almost nobody” pays the full cost of tuition. There are federal grants and local scholarships that help offset the high cost. Which raises another question: If almost nobody pays the sticker price, why is the sticker price so high? We wouldn't tolerate this pricing model anywhere else, except when we are buying a Kia Sportage.
Perhaps it’s time to change the question from "Where are you going to college?" to "Should you go to college?" Suddenly, community college for two years doesn't sound so crazy. Neither does a state university. Or a technical school. Or an apprenticeship as a plumber or electrician. Yes, the customer is finally beginning to shop.
That's potentially terrifying for small private colleges because many of them depend heavily on tuition. They have campuses to maintain, faculty to pay and dormitories to fill. A university can't simply close half its campus because freshman enrollment drops unexpectedly.
Johnson & Wales University is taking note. They recently announced that degrees in four main fields: Computer Science, Criminal Justice, Graphic Design and Hospitality Management will now be three-year degrees at their Providence, RI campus. At $65,000 per year in tuition that’s worth exploring.
And after spending decades pretending they were invaluable, some colleges may be learning a painful lesson every other business eventually learns: You can raise the price for only so long before somebody finally asks whether what you're selling is ethical or worth it.
I’m just a regular guy sitting in a Waffle House pecking on a keyboard. Shoot me an email at T@tomgreene.com. I promise that you’ll hear back from me ‘cause, you know, I’m a real person and all.