First Independent Poll Shows Berger Leading Page In State Senate Primary
Yesterday, far-right Republican pollster Rick Shaftan released the first independent poll of the Republican Primary for Senate District 26. The poll found that Senator Berger led Sheriff Sam Page by 39-35. The poll had a sample size of 325 people who had previously participated in Republican primaries in 2020, 2022, and 2024.
Key takeaways from the poll:
“Berger leads 46-18 in Guilford and Page leads 52-32 in Rockingham. Rockingham seems to be poised for a slightly higher turnout that the voter file (56% Guilford) would indicate. We had it 50-50 between the counties.”
“Berger wins Republicans (69% of the electorate) 41-35. Page wins Undeclareds (31%) by 36-34.”
“Berger wins very conservative voters (51%) by 40-34 and somewhat conservative voters (32%) by 39-31. Page leads 46-35 with moderate and liberal primary voters (16%).”
“President Trump's endorsement is a 39-7 net plus, with 54% saying it makes no difference. Berger leads 54-21 with those more likely to back a Trump-endorsed candidate, while Page leads 55-18 among those less likely and 42-31 with those for whom it makes no difference.”
Tim’s Take: Polling for state legislative races is different compared to polls for the entire country or state. But poll does confirm the general political sense that the race is competitive, and that President Trump’s endorsement makes a difference with Republican primary voters, just like every other Republican primary in the country for the last several years. This poll stands in contrast to the previous polls pushed by consultants aligned with Sam Page that did not release the data or tabs.
