North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation Releases 2026 Partisan District Scores
This week, the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation (NCFREE) released its 2026 Partisan District Scores (PDS), providing an updated district-by-district analysis measuring the underlying partisan composition of all 120 North Carolina and 50 Senate districts ahead of this year’s election.
“Since 1983, NCFREE has been North Carolina’s trusted source for intelligence grounded in data and facts,” NCFREE Executive Director Alex Baltzegar said. “Our Partisan District Scores give business and civic leaders the context they need to understand the forces shaping legislative power so they can anticipate change and make better long-term decisions.”
The 2026 releases provides the most advanced model to date, incorporating 2024 election result data, providing one of the most up to date looks at North Carolina’s state legislative districts. Each Partisan District Score reflects the approximate partisan advantage of a district in a neutral two-party environment with any incumbent advantage removed. For example, a district rated R+6 suggests a generic Republican would be expected to win approximately 53 percent to 47 percent, while a D+6 district would indicate the same advantage for Democrats.
“North Carolina remains one of the most dynamic political states in the country, and district fundamentals remain foundational,” Cindy Morgan, a senior political advertising executive at Spectrum Reach and member of the NCFREE Board of Directors, said. “By strengthening our model with fresh election data and more comprehensive district-level inputs, NCFREE's 2026 scores offer an enhanced understanding of where the battlegrounds truly are in November.”
Top 10 Most Competitive Districts (By 2026 PDS)
House District 37 (Wake County): D+0.3 | Candidates: Rep. Erin Paré (R) vs. Winn Decker (D)
House District 35 (Wake County): R+0.3 | Candidates: Rep. Mike Schietzelt (R) vs. Evonne S. Hopkins (D)
Senate District 11 (Franklin, Nash, and Vance Counties): D+0.8 | Candidates: Sen. Lisa Barnes (R) vs. James Gailliard (D)
House District 24 (Nash and Wilson Counties): D+2.0 | Candidates: Rep. Dante Pittman (D) vs. Blake Boykin (R)
House District 105 (Mecklenburg County): D+2.1 | Candidates: Rep. Tricia Cotham (R) vs. Ken McCool (D)
House District 115 (Buncombe County): D+2.4 | Candidates: Rep. Lindsey Prather (D) vs. Anthony Penland (R)
Senate District 18 (Granville and Wake Counties): D+2.5 (Open Seat) | Candidates: Haseeb Fatmi (D) vs. Chris Stock (R)
House District 5 (Camden, Gates, Hertford, and Pasquotank Counties): R+2.5 | Candidates: Rep. Bill Ward (R) vs. Sam Davis III (D)
Senate District 7 (New Hanover County): R+2.7 | Candidates: Sen. Michael Lee (R) vs. Jessica Bichler (D)
House District 73 (Cabarrus County): R+3.0 | Candidates: Rep. Jonathan Almond (R) vs. Thomas Monks (D)
