Prospect of Lara Trump Senate Campaign Surges on Kalshi Prediction Market

With Senator Tillis’s announcement that he no longer plans to seek reelection, speculation continues to rage about who will be the next Republican nominee for Senate for North Carolina. On Kalshi’s prediction market, Lara Trump currently has a commanding lead. Yesterday President Trump said he would support Lara Trump if she entered the race, and now the prediction market shows Lara Trump with a 42% lead, RNC Chairman Michael Whatley with a 17% chance, and former Gubernation candidate Mark Robinson with a 4% chance.  

Prediction markets like Kalshi provide some limited data-driven insights for situations like this, where polling is unreliable given the suddenness of the news. Additionally, Kalshi’s prediction market shows that despite Tillis’s departure from the race, most speculators still give Republicans the same chance of winning the seat.